Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways.
Way back during WWII, statistician Abraham Wald was asked to help the British decide where to add armor to their bombers. After analyzing the records, he recommended adding more armor to the places where there was no damage. This seems backward at first, but Wald realized his data came from bombers that survived. That is, the British were only able to analyze the bombers that returned to England; those that were shot down over enemy territory were not part of their sample. These bombers' wounds showed where they could afford to be hit. Said another way, the undamaged areas on the survivors showed where the lost planes must have been hit because the planes hit in those areas did not return from their missions.
Wald assumed that the bullets were fired randomly, that no one could accurately aim for a particular part of the bomber. Instead they aimed in the general direction of the plane and sometimes got lucky. So, for example, if Wald saw that more bombers in his sample had bullet holes in the middle of the wings, he did not conclude that Nazis liked to aim for the middle of wings. He assumed that there must have been about as many bombers with bullet holes in every other part of the plane but that those with holes elsewhere were not part of his sample because they had been shot down.
With that in mind, compare the number of mass shootings that happen in "gun free zones" such as schools and universities, and the number that happen at gun-rich zones, such as shooting ranges or gun shows. ... ... Exactly. I'm not suggesting that OMG EVERYONE HAV GUNZ is the answer, I'm suggesting that if we as a society are going to make an honest effort to find a solution to this problem, let's not only take into account incidents such as the Newtown shooting, where everything went wrong; but also include incidents such as the San Antonion theater shooting, where (all things considered) everything went right. Only by taking all of the information into account -- not just the selective bits that reinforce our already preconceived notions -- will we be able to understand the true nature of the problem.
Author John Curra wrote, "The carotid arteries carry oxygen-rich blood from the heart to the brain. When these are compressed, as in strangulation or hanging, the sudden loss of oxygen to the brain and the accumulation of carbon dioxide can increase feelings of giddiness, lightheadness, and pleasure, all of which will heighten masturbatory sensations." Author George Shuman describes the effect as such, "When the brain is deprived of oxygen, it induces a lucid, semi-hallucinogenic state called hypoxia. Combined with orgasm, the rush is said to be no less powerful than cocaine, and highly addictive." Deaths often occur when the loss of consciousness caused by partial asphyxia leads to loss of control over the means of strangulation, resulting in continued asphyxia and death. While often asphyxiophilia is incorporated into sex with a partner, others enjoy this behaviour by themselves, making it more difficult to get out of dangerous situations. Victims are often found to have rigged some sort of "rescue mechanism" that has not worked in the way they anticipated as they lost consciousness.
When kept as a talisman, a horseshoe is said to bring good luck. Some believe that to hang it with the ends pointing upwards is good luck as it acts as a storage container of sorts for any good luck that happens to be floating by, whereas to hang it with the ends pointing down, is bad luck as all the good luck will fall out. Others believe that the horseshoe should be hung the other way, with the ends pointing down, as it will then release its luck to the people around it.
Ernie, Followed your site now for close to 8 years, we share lots of opinions on lots of subjects ... 1 In particular being the USA's current "gun control" issues ... ie moronic bans and other such nonsense ... I found this on eBay while looking through some things ... This is the item number (261151027123) to a great listing that just made me laugh out of my seat. A Real must read for people who are like minded as Myself and You... Pay particular attention to the question and answer section! Thanks Ernie !! Jonesy, Wadsworth OHIO
Matthias Giraud and Stefan Laude are both experienced skiers used to zooming around on mountaintops. But their love of skiing was lacking one thing: enough danger. That's right: They actively looked for an avalanche to race. After finally finding one, they both strapped on their cameras and got down to the business of defying death. At the start of the video, nothing seems out of the ordinary. Then at around the 1:15 mark, Giraud jumps off a cliff and deploys a parachute. Only then do they turn the camera around for the big reveal: There was a monster avalanche chasing them the whole way down.
"The Ugly Duckling" is a literary fairy tale by Danish poet and author Hans Christian Andersen. The story tells of a homely little bird born in a barnyard who suffers abuse from his surroundings until, much to his delight, he matures into a beautiful swan, the most beautiful bird of all. The story is beloved around the world as a tale about personal transformation for the better. During his lifetime Andersen was acclaimed for having delighted children worldwide, and was feted by royalty. Andersen's fairy tales, which have been translated into more than 125 languages, have become culturally embedded in the West's collective consciousness, readily accessible to children, but presenting lessons of virtue and resilience in the face of adversity for mature readers as well. There is a statue in Central Park, New York commemorating Andersen and The Ugly Duckling.
Beer pong, also known as Beirut, is a drinking game in which players throw a ping pong ball across a table with the intent of landing the ball in a cup of beer on the other end. The game typically consists of two two-to-four-player teams and multiple cups set up, in triangle formation, on each side. There are no official rules and rules may vary widely, though usually there are six or ten plastic cups arranged in a triangle on each side. Each team then takes turns attempting to shoot ping pong balls into the opponent's cups. If a ball lands in a cup, then the contents of that cup are consumed by the other team, and the cup is removed. If the opposing team throws the ball into an empty cup, they must consume the contents of one of their cups. The first side to eliminate all of the opponent's cups is the winner.
nick offerman reads tweets from young female celebrities vol. 6
swimmers below the waves captured in incredible underwater photography