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Ernie's House of Whoopass! November 18, 2013
November 18, 2013

Let's Take A Closer Look At This Zombie War of Attrition.

So a few days ago, this post came crawling across my news feed and it got me to thinking. He raised a good point about the simple war of attrition, so why not do me up a fancy schmancy spreadsheet to see how things work out. According to the All Powerful Google, the current US population is 313,900,000. We'll use Dennis' infection rate of 99.0% thus the good old US of A would be filled with 310,761,000 walkers all trying to eat the living shit out of 3,139,000 survivors. Each month, every survivor will be responsible for dispatching 10 walkers. But rather than a flat linear battle, I decided to expand the scope a little bit and take a more honest look at The Walking Dead scenario by considering four other variables.

First, the natural attrition rate, which is what I call walkers being killed off by "natural" causes such was falling onto a sharp stick which pierces their brain, walking off a cliff and splattering on the rocks below, freezing solid, being crushed by other walkers, or just plain ol decomposition. This attrition rate starts out at 0.1% and gradually increases over time to a maximum rate of 2% per month in the waning years.

The second additional variable was the survivor mortality rate; that is to say how many of your group would be killed off by the walkers each month. It starts at 15.0% and decreases gradually from there. The presumption here is two fold. First as there are less and less humans, there will be less and less survivors for the walkers to find and kill. And secondly, as time progresses, survivors will become more resourceful and find better ways to protect themselves. Hello, Dale, can you hear me?

The third is closely related to the second: survivor reanimation rate. Walker kills survivor. Survivor becomes walker. I started this out at 80.0% and it decreases from there; as people come to understand how the disease spreads and what happens to dead folks who don't have their brain destroyed, they'll take more steps to prevent reanimation. Yes, this one's for you, Shane.

And finally, survivor birth rate, or what percentage of the female survivors are pregnant. And unlike that bitch Lori who complicates things at every turn, we will assume that everyone survives the child birthing process. We start out at 2% of the female population pregnant, and gradually increase from there, to a maximum of 10% of the female population. Also, those women who are pregnant won't be counted as going out to kill their monthly quota of walker. You know, unions and maternity leave and all that shit. Besides, a woman thug stole my banjo.

Each of these variables increase or decrease over time, at a set rate of 0.02% per month which is very gradual at first, but compounds exponentially as we cross the two decade mark. Natural attrition rate goes up as walkers age. Survivor mortality and reanimation rates decrease as survivors get wiser and learn to adapt... and well, fuck.

So anyway I projected it out as a 25 year battle. If you don't have Microsoft Excel you'll have to check out this screen capture or this big ass long table, otherwise you're welcome to check out the spreadsheet itself here. Be forewarned, I'm running a screen resolution of 1920x1080 so if you have anything smaller you're going to have to scroll for awhile. With those default numbers, it looks like we the survivors will hit our darkest hour just before the 10 year mark, on month #115. There will be 84,917,187 walkers and only 83 survivors; a ratio of 1,025,246:1 -- humans gradually rebound over the next 15 years until overtaking the last of the zombie hordes five months shy of the 25th anniversary of the zombie apocalypse.

I was actually very surprised to find that the reanimation rate really has the least effect on the long term outcome, where the number of walkers killed by each survivor played the most significant role. Crank that reanimation rate all the way up from 80% to 100%; meaning people are complete fucking idiots and don't know to destroy the brain, and it barely affects the outcome. But drop that 10 walkers killed per month to 9, and instead of winning the war at the 25 year mark, there will still be 17,300,000 zombies left to contend with. So let this be a lesson to you all. When this shit happens for real the most important thing to remember is and kill, kill, kill. Kill as many walkers as you can, as continuously as you can. Oh, skip the condoms -- increasing that initial birth rate from 2% to 5% cuts our little rags to riches story by more than half, all the way down to 11 years.

Hi Ernie, Why is American the only country on the planet that sees the 11th of November as 'Veterans Day'? The rest of the entire WORLD 'celebrates' Armistice Day - celebrating those who paid the ultimate price by giving their lives for our freedom. NOT those who survived. What the hell is wrong with you Americans? On the 11th hour of the 11th month in 1918 the peace treaty of World War I came into being. So the 'celebration' is for those who gave their lives - NOT those who survived. So you Americans have got it all wrong, AGAIN. You lot just don't have a clue, do you? To prove it - I'll just ask you to point out Indonesia on a map of the world. I rest my case. John (Scotsman) P.S. Answer me this question - what's the biggest - and second biggest - country in the world? Neither is America, as a hint.

Ahh, I remember you. The whiny bitch who wanted to ban air rifles. Veteran's Day. Two reasons. First, because no other country in the world honors and pays tribute to its veterans the same way we do. Or at least we used to, until dipshit got into office. Second, we already have a day of remembrance for those who have given their lives for our country, it's May 28th and called Memorial Day. It was first implemented in 1861, before those who would fight in World War I were even born. So when the Treaty of Versailles was signed and people wanted to make a holiday to pay tribute, we decided to honor all of our veterans with this new holiday, instead of making a duplicate for one we already had for -- by that point -- almost six decades. So it's really not the Americans got it wrong, it's the rest of you assholes were late to the party. You know. Again. Indonesia - just north of Australia, and sandwiches Bali, where all those fucking tourists got blown to shit a few years back. Biggest country. You didn't specify by area or population. Either way my guesses would be Russia and Canada/China depending on how you rank. Have fun sucking your English queen's cock. E (American)

Old and not so busted: Tombstone. The new hotness: Dead in Tombstone. I know, sounds zombie'ish, right? But it's not. The film stars Danny Trejo as Guerrero, a gang leader who gets double-crossed by his fellow gang members. Striking a pact with the Devil after entering Hell, he resurfaces to the earthly world to avenge his own death by killing the men who murdered him. Some people have compared the film's premise to that of Pale Rider, starring Clint Eastwood; which we all know was just a rehashed version of Shane. The western Shane, not The Walking Dead Shane. So there you have it. Danny Fucking Terjo as Shane. Added bonus? It co-stars red headed hottie Dina Meyer, whom I have swooned for every since seeing her topless in Starship Troopers. That's right, she's my girl, sir.

Since I know you're made of money, consider this. So nine days from now, on Black Friday, each Bass Pro shop is supposed to have a MINIMUM of three hundred 500 round boxes of .22, as per their recently stolen Black Friday flyer. Translation: I'll get my ass there early.

Old and busted: Jihawg pork filled ammunition. The new hotness: Jihawg reactive targets.

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